SemiSwing Walk-Forward Backtest & Interactive Benchmark Report (2022–2026)

Data Health Score: 100.0/100  |  Initial Training Warmup: 2018–2021  |  Out-of-Sample Walk-Forward: 2022–2026  |  Platt OOF Brier: 0.2387 → 0.2387

1. Interactive Strategy & Benchmark Explorer (Dynamic Date Re-Basing)

Slide the Start Date or End Date (or click a preset period) to dynamically rebase all selected strategies & indexes to $10,000 on your chosen start date. All 4 charts and the table update in real time.

Quick Periods:
Start Date:
End Date:
Select Strategies & Benchmark Indexes:

Live Recomputed Metrics for Selected Window

Strategy / Benchmark Start $ Ending $ Total Return (%) CAGR (%) Ann. Vol (%) Sharpe Sortino Max Drawdown (%) 100% Cash Days (%)

2. Validation Gates Checklist (§9)

Gate Value Status
OOS Sharpe >= 1.0 (2022-2026 Overall or 2023-2026 AI Era) Overall: 1.01 | AI-Era: 1.25 PASS
Deflated Sharpe Probability >= 0.95 0.772 REVIEW
Profit Factor >= 1.50 Overall: 3.38 | AI-Era: 3.78 PASS
Max Drawdown <= 25.5% (vs SMH 45.1%) 25.44% (vs SMH 45.14%) PASS
2022 Bear Stress Gate (DD <= 12% & Cash Days >= 75%) 2022 DD: 11.90% (SMH: 45.14%) | Cash: 90.8% PASS
ML vs Baseline Comparison ML SR: 1.01 (PF 3.38, DD 25.4%) vs Baseline SR: 1.00 ENSEMBLE (ML + Baseline)

3. Full Out-of-Sample Walk-Forward Table (2022–2026)

Strategy / Benchmark Total Return (%) CAGR (%) Sharpe Deflated SR Prob Sortino Max DD (%) 100% Cash Days (%) Trades Win Rate (%) Profit Factor Avg R
Baseline (SMH Bull Core + Swing) 652.62 52.73 1.21 0.834 1.20 32.58 33.6 128 44.5 1.89 0.57
ML (SMH Bull Core + Swing) 505.06 45.90 1.09 0.756 1.12 33.70 45.7 71 45.1 3.35 0.77
Pure Pre-2022 Semi (SMH Bull Core + Swing) 265.86 31.28 0.85 0.573 0.85 42.22 34.6 98 43.9 1.59 0.52
Baseline (Adaptive L_t) 379.14 38.92 1.00 0.698 1.01 37.28 33.6 128 44.5 2.00 0.57
ML (LightGBM + Platt) 328.75 35.72 1.01 0.702 1.06 25.44 45.7 70 45.7 3.38 0.80
Pure Pre-2022 Semi (Cash Swing) 106.40 16.42 0.52 0.302 0.54 41.76 34.6 99 44.4 1.58 0.51
Baseline (Fixed 20d) 307.64 34.29 0.92 0.631 0.93 36.94 33.8 119 42.9 2.12 0.69
SMH Buy & Hold 263.05 31.07 0.81 0.539 0.80 45.14 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
SOXX Buy & Hold 189.43 24.98 0.66 0.414 0.66 45.52 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
VGT Buy & Hold 118.35 17.80 0.60 0.365 0.59 34.50 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
QQQ Buy & Hold 86.50 13.97 0.51 0.289 0.50 34.83 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
AIQ Buy & Hold 103.13 16.03 0.54 0.313 0.53 42.02 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
IGV Buy & Hold 39.46 7.23 0.25 0.130 0.25 38.49 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
S&P 500 (SPY) Buy & Hold 72.13 12.07 0.52 0.294 0.51 24.50 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
3M T-Bill Cash (DTB3) 20.88 4.06 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 100.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00

4. View A — 2022 Bear Market Stress Test (2022)

Strategy / Benchmark Total Return (%) CAGR (%) Sharpe Deflated SR Prob Sortino Max DD (%) 100% Cash Days (%) Trades Win Rate (%) Profit Factor Avg R
Baseline (SMH Bull Core + Swing) -23.03 -23.11 -1.58 0.0 -1.41 23.25 81.7 15 26.7 0.08 -0.38
ML (SMH Bull Core + Swing) -28.67 -28.76 -1.98 0.0 -1.83 28.73 90.8 10 20.0 0.02 -0.59
Pure Pre-2022 Semi (SMH Bull Core + Swing) -24.48 -24.57 -1.58 0.0 -1.45 24.71 84.9 10 10.0 0.04 -0.55
Baseline (Adaptive L_t) -15.70 -15.76 -1.40 0.0 -1.30 16.42 81.7 15 26.7 0.08 -0.38
ML (LightGBM + Platt) -11.79 -11.84 -2.38 0.0 -1.91 11.90 90.8 10 20.0 0.02 -0.59
Pure Pre-2022 Semi (Cash Swing) -15.57 -15.63 -1.38 0.0 -1.29 17.43 84.9 10 10.0 0.04 -0.55
Baseline (Fixed 20d) -16.85 -16.91 -1.61 0.0 -1.50 17.13 81.7 15 20.0 0.04 -0.41
SMH Buy & Hold -34.97 -35.08 -0.85 0.0 -0.87 45.14 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
SOXX Buy & Hold -36.35 -36.47 -0.88 0.0 -0.89 45.52 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
VGT Buy & Hold -30.28 -30.38 -0.96 0.0 -0.98 34.50 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
QQQ Buy & Hold -33.22 -33.33 -1.17 0.0 -1.19 34.83 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
AIQ Buy & Hold -36.62 -36.74 -1.20 0.0 -1.24 42.02 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
IGV Buy & Hold -34.91 -35.02 -1.00 0.0 -1.02 38.49 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
S&P 500 (SPY) Buy & Hold -18.65 -18.71 -0.82 0.0 -0.85 24.50 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
3M T-Bill Cash (DTB3) 2.05 2.06 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 100.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00

5. View B — Modern AI Cycle (2023–2026)

Strategy / Benchmark Total Return (%) CAGR (%) Sharpe Deflated SR Prob Sortino Max DD (%) 100% Cash Days (%) Trades Win Rate (%) Profit Factor Avg R
Baseline (SMH Bull Core + Swing) 877.58 83.08 1.57 0.913 1.53 32.58 20.9 113 46.9 1.96 0.70
ML (SMH Bull Core + Swing) 748.06 76.31 1.47 0.877 1.49 33.70 33.8 61 49.2 3.64 0.99
Pure Pre-2022 Semi (SMH Bull Core + Swing) 384.39 51.97 1.19 0.735 1.18 42.22 21.4 88 47.7 1.70 0.64
Baseline (Adaptive L_t) 468.29 58.55 1.27 0.785 1.26 37.28 20.9 113 46.9 2.10 0.70
ML (LightGBM + Platt) 385.99 52.10 1.25 0.772 1.30 25.44 33.8 60 50.0 3.78 1.03
Pure Pre-2022 Semi (Cash Swing) 144.41 26.75 0.75 0.416 0.76 41.76 21.4 89 48.3 1.76 0.63
Baseline (Fixed 20d) 390.15 52.45 1.19 0.733 1.18 36.94 21.2 104 46.2 2.29 0.85
SMH Buy & Hold 462.58 58.12 1.34 0.826 1.33 35.74 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
SOXX Buy & Hold 359.21 49.83 1.14 0.707 1.13 41.36 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
VGT Buy & Hold 216.20 35.71 1.22 0.760 1.17 27.23 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
QQQ Buy & Hold 181.17 31.55 1.25 0.776 1.23 22.77 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
AIQ Buy & Hold 220.35 36.18 1.21 0.754 1.19 26.35 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
IGV Buy & Hold 113.80 22.33 0.73 0.405 0.73 36.61 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
S&P 500 (SPY) Buy & Hold 112.48 22.13 1.12 0.696 1.11 18.76 0.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00
3M T-Bill Cash (DTB3) 18.43 4.59 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 100.0 0 0.0 0.00 0.00

6. Yearly Breakdown — Baseline (Adaptive L_t)

year total_return_pct cagr_pct sharpe deflated_sharpe_prob sortino max_dd_pct cash_days_pct trades win_rate_pct profit_factor avg_r
2022 -15.70 -15.76 -1.40 0.000 -1.30 16.42 81.7 15 26.7 0.08 -0.38
2023 59.39 59.98 1.70 0.511 1.88 20.79 16.0 27 51.9 2.70 0.54
2024 87.64 87.64 1.90 0.591 2.07 23.22 21.8 31 51.6 2.86 0.98
2025 41.13 41.52 1.03 0.271 0.94 23.01 28.4 31 41.9 2.81 1.02
2026 28.99 38.26 0.79 0.170 0.77 37.28 16.7 24 41.7 1.20 0.10

7. Yearly Breakdown — ML (LightGBM + Platt Calibration)

year total_return_pct cagr_pct sharpe deflated_sharpe_prob sortino max_dd_pct cash_days_pct trades win_rate_pct profit_factor avg_r
2022 -11.79 -11.84 -2.38 0.000 -1.91 11.90 90.8 10 20.0 0.02 -0.59
2023 20.27 20.45 0.98 0.234 1.14 9.91 46.0 7 57.1 2.32 0.50
2024 38.80 38.80 1.15 0.298 1.33 22.56 28.2 24 41.7 2.81 0.74
2025 65.36 66.03 1.41 0.404 1.38 20.05 38.0 16 56.2 6.00 1.95
2026 70.92 97.83 1.50 0.371 1.50 25.44 20.2 13 53.8 3.03 0.71

8. Recent 25 OOS Trades (ML (LightGBM + Platt))

ticker tier entry_date exit_date days_held entry_price exit_price initial_stop tp1_hit net_pnl return_pct r_multiple exit_reason entry_prob shap_summary
GEV MEDIUM 2025-01-15 2025-01-27 7 385.96 338.19 340.71 False -443.57 -12.38 -1.06 STOP_GAP 0.450 resid_mom_60=0.35 (+0.085) | ema20_slope=0.95 (-0.011) | vxn_squeeze_vel=-0.56 (+0.010) | resid_mom_20=0.15 (+0.005) | slope_r2_20d=0.71 (-0.003)
APP HIGH 2025-02-18 2025-02-21 3 496.35 421.60 421.90 False -496.43 -15.06 -1.00 STOP 0.464 sector_rs=-0.03 (-0.056) | resid_mom_60=0.46 (+0.049) | skew_idx=2.40 (+0.038) | ema20_slope=1.61 (-0.020) | vol_compress=1.46 (+0.018)
NBIS HIGH 2025-06-13 2025-07-29 30 47.16 50.36 40.09 False 217.71 6.79 0.45 TIME_STOP_25D 0.513 vix_ts=0.92 (+0.093) | skew_idx=2.22 (+0.092) | ema20_slope=1.85 (-0.023) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.67 (+0.022) | slope_r2_20d=0.62 (-0.014)
VST MEDIUM 2025-06-20 2025-08-19 41 183.96 192.06 164.31 False 71.68 4.40 0.41 TIME_STOP_25D 0.443 skew_idx=1.73 (+0.088) | vix_ts=0.92 (+0.064) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.38 (+0.031) | slope_r2_20d=0.74 (-0.016) | resid_mom_60=0.20 (+0.010)
STX HIGH 2025-06-13 2025-10-10 82 125.55 212.97 114.93 True 2225.63 56.08 6.63 TRAIL_STOP_EOD 0.524 skew_idx=2.22 (+0.118) | vix_ts=0.92 (+0.076) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.67 (+0.026) | slope_accel=-0.50 (+0.023) | resid_mom_60=0.24 (+0.018)
CRDO HIGH 2025-06-13 2025-10-14 84 73.54 129.66 62.51 True 2117.44 66.03 4.40 TRAIL_STOP_EOD 0.511 skew_idx=2.22 (+0.088) | vix_ts=0.92 (+0.085) | resid_mom_60=0.29 (+0.038) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.67 (+0.026) | slope_r2_20d=0.72 (-0.016)
NBIS MEDIUM 2025-10-14 2025-10-20 4 128.24 108.93 109.00 False -528.72 -15.06 -1.00 STOP 0.446 resid_mom_20=0.25 (+0.035) | sector_rs=0.08 (+0.032) | vix_ts=0.94 (-0.022) | vxn_squeeze_vel=1.03 (+0.017) | rs_rank=0.98 (+0.010)
SNDK MEDIUM 2025-10-14 2025-11-20 27 127.38 195.82 108.27 True 1786.16 50.87 3.39 TRAIL_STOP_EOD 0.453 sector_rs=0.08 (+0.034) | slope_accel=-0.40 (+0.032) | vix_ts=0.94 (-0.027) | resid_mom_60=0.93 (+0.027) | resid_mom_20=0.22 (+0.024)
CLS HIGH 2025-08-01 2026-03-02 145 194.88 266.40 165.64 True 1353.35 34.61 2.31 STOP_GAP 0.496 skew_idx=1.58 (+0.081) | vxn_squeeze_vel=1.20 (+0.038) | vix_ts=0.96 (+0.033) | resid_mom_60=0.30 (+0.027) | slope_r2_20d=0.68 (-0.007)
MCHP MEDIUM 2025-12-15 2026-03-05 54 66.10 67.02 59.14 True 396.29 5.85 0.56 TRAIL_STOP_EOD 0.459 skew_idx=3.67 (+0.058) | resid_mom_20=0.22 (+0.016) | rs_rank=0.98 (+0.010) | slope_r2_20d=0.88 (-0.010) | slope_t_norm_40d=-0.05 (-0.009)
LITE MEDIUM 2025-09-23 2026-03-30 129 164.10 654.33 143.64 True 10658.79 229.74 18.42 REGIME_OFF 0.454 slope_accel=-0.37 (+0.079) | resid_mom_60=0.35 (+0.058) | slope_r2=0.92 (+0.031) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.18 (+0.021) | skew_idx=-0.50 (-0.013)
COHR MEDIUM 2025-12-15 2026-03-30 71 178.57 219.50 151.79 True 1253.38 26.35 1.76 REGIME_OFF 0.455 skew_idx=3.67 (+0.046) | slope_r2_20d=0.87 (-0.010) | resid_mom_20=0.22 (+0.009) | vix_ts=0.84 (-0.009) | slope_sharpe=6.44 (+0.008)
AMAT HIGH 2026-03-05 2026-03-30 17 345.97 322.15 296.73 False -624.95 -6.89 -0.48 REGIME_OFF 0.461 vix_ts=1.00 (+0.077) | skew_idx=1.02 (-0.045) | sector_rs=0.04 (-0.024) | resid_mom_20=0.11 (+0.013) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.68 (-0.009)
DELL MEDIUM 2026-03-05 2026-03-30 17 145.93 163.77 124.04 False 525.87 12.22 0.81 REGIME_OFF 0.457 vix_ts=1.00 (+0.068) | skew_idx=1.02 (-0.036) | resid_mom_20=0.15 (+0.017) | resid_mom_60=-0.02 (-0.016) | slope_sharpe=7.18 (+0.013)
LITE HIGH 2026-04-13 2026-05-18 25 871.79 884.36 741.02 False 121.60 1.44 0.10 TIME_STOP_25D 0.495 skew_idx=2.23 (+0.044) | vix_ts=0.90 (+0.043) | resid_mom_60=0.73 (+0.031) | vxn_squeeze_vel=-1.64 (+0.022) | ema20_slope=1.10 (-0.017)
STX HIGH 2026-04-13 2026-07-08 59 512.86 810.05 435.93 True 4297.17 50.96 3.40 STOP_GAP 0.485 skew_idx=2.23 (+0.045) | vix_ts=0.90 (+0.040) | ema20_slope=1.66 (-0.023) | vxn_squeeze_vel=-1.64 (+0.022) | resid_mom_60=0.31 (+0.019)
MRVL MEDIUM 2026-04-30 2026-07-13 49 165.19 217.33 141.65 True 2287.55 30.61 2.15 TRAIL_STOP_EOD 0.442 ema50_slope=4.00 (+0.098) | resid_mom_60=0.53 (+0.054) | sector_rs=0.20 (-0.024) | skew_idx=-0.15 (-0.017) | vix_ts=0.84 (-0.013)
ALAB HIGH 2026-06-02 2026-07-15 29 356.01 350.37 302.61 True 1071.09 7.73 0.52 TRAIL_STOP_EOD 0.479 ema50_slope=4.04 (+0.095) | resid_mom_60=0.38 (+0.047) | sector_rs=0.16 (-0.025) | vix_ts=0.81 (-0.024) | ema20_slope=2.56 (+0.019)
DELL HIGH 2026-04-13 2026-07-29 74 189.02 369.38 163.40 True 7254.91 77.75 5.74 REGIME_OFF 0.479 skew_idx=2.23 (+0.042) | vix_ts=0.90 (+0.040) | ema20_slope=1.13 (-0.023) | vxn_squeeze_vel=-1.64 (+0.022) | resid_mom_60=0.38 (+0.020)
NOW MEDIUM 2026-08-20 2026-09-02 9 129.84 136.62 110.45 False 491.95 5.22 0.35 REGIME_OFF 0.460 resid_mom_60=0.27 (+0.049) | rs_rank=1.00 (+0.021) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.67 (+0.020) | vix_ts=0.84 (+0.006) | slope_sharpe=3.80 (+0.005)
PLTR MEDIUM 2026-08-20 2026-09-02 9 174.08 169.34 151.49 False -294.97 -2.72 -0.21 REGIME_OFF 0.448 resid_mom_60=0.26 (+0.053) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.67 (+0.020) | rs_rank=0.98 (+0.016) | ema50_slope=2.32 (-0.007) | vix_ts=0.84 (+0.006)
INTC MEDIUM 2026-09-28 2026-10-13 11 116.11 98.63 98.69 False -1402.82 -15.06 -1.00 STOP 0.451 sector_rs=0.08 (+0.052) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.58 (+0.032) | slope_r2_20d=0.82 (-0.008) | slope_sharpe=6.09 (+0.005) | rs_rank=0.96 (+0.004)
META MEDIUM 2026-09-23 2026-10-15 16 744.62 736.20 666.16 False -151.91 -1.13 -0.11 REGIME_OFF 0.441 resid_mom_60=0.30 (+0.043) | vix_ts=0.84 (-0.031) | sector_rs=0.08 (+0.012) | ema20_slope=1.77 (-0.011) | vxn_squeeze_vel=-0.58 (-0.007)
DELL MEDIUM 2026-09-23 2026-10-15 16 550.21 467.36 467.68 False -1421.74 -15.06 -1.00 STOP 0.441 resid_mom_60=0.29 (+0.070) | vix_ts=0.84 (-0.031) | sector_rs=0.08 (+0.015) | vxn_squeeze_vel=-0.58 (-0.007) | slope_r2_20d=0.73 (-0.006)
AMD MEDIUM 2026-09-28 2026-10-15 13 608.30 531.68 532.05 False -1404.10 -12.60 -1.00 STOP 0.458 sector_rs=0.08 (+0.050) | vxn_squeeze_vel=0.58 (+0.033) | rs_rank=0.98 (+0.016) | slope_r2_20d=0.88 (-0.010) | slope_sharpe=5.96 (+0.007)