SemiSwing Public Reference Desk
$10K Starter Portfolio • Clean Cash Allocation Guide
SemiSwing Daily Portfolio Desk
Daily Trade Ticket — 2026-10-15
Reference Starter Account ($10K Cash) • Snapshot Synced: 2026-10-15 • VIX 16.5 • APY 4.10%
RISK-ON (Swing Entries Enabled)
Total Portfolio
$10,000.00
Settled Cash Now
$10,000.00
Cash + Rotation
$10,000.00
Premarket Sector Shock Circuit Breaker (Check at 09:20–09:29 ET)
SMH Prior Close: $558.84
Abort Trigger (-1.5%): $550.46
Action Rule: Check premarket SMH quote on your brokerage or TradingView before 09:30 ET open.
If SMH trades below $550.46, CANCEL ALL PENDING BUY ORDERS for today.
Step 1: What to Do With Your Current Holdings (0 Positions)
Clean Cash Account (0 Existing Positions): 100% of capital ($10,000.00) is dry powder ready to deploy into today's qualified swing setups and core semiconductor ETF / treasury cash below.
Step 2: What to Buy (Exact $ Trade Tickets)
Qualified Swing Entry Signals Triggered Today — Execute at Next Market Open:
#1 MSFT Last Close: $539.44 BUY NOW (CONSENSUS (ML + Baseline))
Order (Using Settled Cash: $10,000)
BUY $3,300.00
~6.117 shares @ $539.44 (Max Risk: -$210)
Order (With ETF Rotation: $10,000)
BUY $3,300.00
~6.117 shares @ $539.44 (Max Risk: -$210)
Hard Stop-Loss
$505.12 (-6.4%)
Profit Target (TP1)
$602.36 (+11.7%)
ML Score & RSⓘComposite conviction score combining Platt-calibrated win probability P(TP1 before Stop) with 20-day beta-neutral residual momentum percentile rank across the active universe.
50.1% (RS 92th)
Order Execution: Market on Open (MOO) or Limit ≤ $550.88
Gap-Up Protection: Max chasing ceiling is $550.88 (+2.1% max). If stock opens above $550.88 at 09:30 ET, skip/cancel order.
Entry Condition: ALL GATES PASSED  |  Max Hold: 25 trading days  |  Earnings: 9d
Top Model Drivers (SHAP): vix_tsⓘVolatility term structure ratio (VIX / VIX3M). Values < 1.0 confirm normal contango (calm regime); >= 1.0 indicates backwardation (near-term panic).=0.89 (+0.051) | skew_idxⓘCBOE SKEW Index 60-day z-score. Elevated values (> +1.5) indicate institutional tail-risk hedging and out-of-the-money put demand.=2.49 (+0.047) | resid_mom_60ⓘ60-day idiosyncratic residual momentum relative to SMH after stripping market beta. Confirms stock-specific momentum decoupled from sector drift.=0.34 (+0.025) | vxn_squeeze_velⓘ5-day rate of change in Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN). Rapid drops detect post-panic volatility compression and short squeezes.=0.34 (+0.010) | slope_r2_20dⓘ20-day regression R^2 in [0, 1] measuring trend linearity and absence of whipsaw.=0.91 (-0.006)
#2 PLTR Last Close: $200.50 BUY NOW (CONSENSUS (ML + Baseline))
Order (Using Settled Cash: $10,000)
BUY $3,300.00
~16.459 shares @ $200.50 (Max Risk: -$340)
Order (With ETF Rotation: $10,000)
BUY $3,300.00
~16.459 shares @ $200.50 (Max Risk: -$340)
Hard Stop-Loss
$179.85 (-10.3%)
Profit Target (TP1)
$238.37 (+18.9%)
ML Score & RSⓘComposite conviction score combining Platt-calibrated win probability P(TP1 before Stop) with 20-day beta-neutral residual momentum percentile rank across the active universe.
51.7% (RS 96th)
Order Execution: Market on Open (MOO) or Limit ≤ $207.38
Gap-Up Protection: Max chasing ceiling is $207.38 (+3.4% max). If stock opens above $207.38 at 09:30 ET, skip/cancel order.
Entry Condition: ALL GATES PASSED  |  Max Hold: 25 trading days  |  Earnings: 13d
Top Model Drivers (SHAP): vix_tsⓘVolatility term structure ratio (VIX / VIX3M). Values < 1.0 confirm normal contango (calm regime); >= 1.0 indicates backwardation (near-term panic).=0.89 (+0.051) | skew_idxⓘCBOE SKEW Index 60-day z-score. Elevated values (> +1.5) indicate institutional tail-risk hedging and out-of-the-money put demand.=2.49 (+0.047) | resid_mom_60ⓘ60-day idiosyncratic residual momentum relative to SMH after stripping market beta. Confirms stock-specific momentum decoupled from sector drift.=0.49 (+0.033) | rs_rankⓘCross-sectional percentile rank [0.0, 1.0] of 20-day residual momentum across the active tradeable universe.=0.96 (+0.011) | vxn_squeeze_velⓘ5-day rate of change in Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN). Rapid drops detect post-panic volatility compression and short squeezes.=0.34 (+0.011)
#3 VST Last Close: $154.17 BUY NOW (CONSENSUS (ML + Baseline))
Order (Using Settled Cash: $10,000)
BUY $2,666.15
~17.294 shares @ $154.17 (Max Risk: -$400)
Order (With ETF Rotation: $10,000)
BUY $2,666.15
~17.294 shares @ $154.17 (Max Risk: -$400)
Hard Stop-Loss
$131.04 (-15.0%)
Profit Target (TP1)
$196.57 (+27.5%)
ML Score & RSⓘComposite conviction score combining Platt-calibrated win probability P(TP1 before Stop) with 20-day beta-neutral residual momentum percentile rank across the active universe.
46.6% (RS 84th)
Order Execution: Market on Open (MOO) or Limit ≤ $160.34
Gap-Up Protection: Max chasing ceiling is $160.34 (+4.0% max). If stock opens above $160.34 at 09:30 ET, skip/cancel order.
Entry Condition: ALL GATES PASSED  |  Max Hold: 25 trading days  |  Earnings: 16d
Top Model Drivers (SHAP): skew_idxⓘCBOE SKEW Index 60-day z-score. Elevated values (> +1.5) indicate institutional tail-risk hedging and out-of-the-money put demand.=2.49 (+0.088) | vix_tsⓘVolatility term structure ratio (VIX / VIX3M). Values < 1.0 confirm normal contango (calm regime); >= 1.0 indicates backwardation (near-term panic).=0.89 (+0.045) | sector_rsⓘ20-day relative strength of SMH vs SPY: Delta%20d(SMH) - Delta%20d(SPY). Positive values confirm semiconductor sector leadership.=-0.02 (-0.023) | vxn_squeeze_velⓘ5-day rate of change in Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN). Rapid drops detect post-panic volatility compression and short squeezes.=0.34 (+0.012) | vol_compressⓘRealized volatility compression ratio (RV_10d / RV_60d). Values < 0.70 indicate price coiling prior to directional breakout.=1.64 (-0.004)
Parking Unallocated Cash ($733.85) — Dual Strategy Paths
After funding today's swing tickets (or while waiting for pullbacks), choose how to park your unallocated dry powder:
Path 1: Semiconductor Bull Core (Growth Track)
BUY $733.85 of SMH (Secular Bull Core ETF)
~1.313 shares @ $558.84
Keeps core long-term semiconductor secular bull exposure intact.
Path 2: 3M T-Bills / Treasury Cash (Preservation Track)
HOLD $733.85 in SGOV / BIL
Earning 4.10% APY Risk-Free
Zero drawdowns; leaves dry powder ready to pounce on new swing dips.
Pre-Sized Watchlist Candidates — Top 4 Near Trigger (Pre-Sized in $)
Pick 2 to 3 tickets below (sized from your deployable cash pool while capping single-trade risk):
#1 ADI Last Close: $403.95 PRE-SIZED TICKET #1 (Tier HIGH)
Order (Using Settled Cash: $10,000)
BUY $4,857.33
~12.025 shares @ $403.95 (Max Risk: -$423)
Order (With ETF Rotation: $10,000)
BUY $4,857.33
~12.025 shares @ $403.95 (Max Risk: -$423)
Hard Stop-Loss
$368.75 (-8.7%)
Profit Target (TP1)
$468.49 (+16.0%)
ML Score & RSⓘComposite conviction score combining Platt-calibrated win probability P(TP1 before Stop) with 20-day beta-neutral residual momentum percentile rank across the active universe.
48.2% (RS 94th)
Order Execution: Market on Open (MOO) or Limit ≤ $415.68
Gap-Up Protection: Max chasing ceiling is $415.68 (+2.9% max). If stock opens above $415.68 at 09:30 ET, skip/cancel order.
Entry Condition: PASSES ALL STOCK GATES (Waiting only on SMH regime_on)  |  Max Hold: 25 trading days  |  Earnings: 29d
Top Model Drivers (SHAP): skew_idxⓘCBOE SKEW Index 60-day z-score. Elevated values (> +1.5) indicate institutional tail-risk hedging and out-of-the-money put demand.=2.49 (+0.087) | vix_tsⓘVolatility term structure ratio (VIX / VIX3M). Values < 1.0 confirm normal contango (calm regime); >= 1.0 indicates backwardation (near-term panic).=0.89 (+0.045) | sector_rsⓘ20-day relative strength of SMH vs SPY: Delta%20d(SMH) - Delta%20d(SPY). Positive values confirm semiconductor sector leadership.=-0.02 (-0.022) | slope_accelⓘ5-day rate of change in normalized slope (t_norm - t_norm_prev5) capturing trend acceleration.=-0.45 (+0.014) | vxn_squeeze_velⓘ5-day rate of change in Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN). Rapid drops detect post-panic volatility compression and short squeezes.=0.34 (+0.013)
#2 TXN Last Close: $279.12 PRE-SIZED TICKET #2 (Tier HIGH)
Order (Using Settled Cash: $10,000)
BUY $4,846.29
~17.363 shares @ $279.12 (Max Risk: -$437)
Order (With ETF Rotation: $10,000)
BUY $4,846.29
~17.363 shares @ $279.12 (Max Risk: -$437)
Hard Stop-Loss
$253.95 (-9.0%)
Profit Target (TP1)
$325.26 (+16.5%)
ML Score & RSⓘComposite conviction score combining Platt-calibrated win probability P(TP1 before Stop) with 20-day beta-neutral residual momentum percentile rank across the active universe.
47.9% (RS 88th)
Order Execution: Market on Open (MOO) or Limit ≤ $287.51
Gap-Up Protection: Max chasing ceiling is $287.51 (+3.0% max). If stock opens above $287.51 at 09:30 ET, skip/cancel order.
Entry Condition: PASSES ALL STOCK GATES (Waiting only on SMH regime_on)  |  Max Hold: 25 trading days  |  Earnings: 4d
Top Model Drivers (SHAP): skew_idxⓘCBOE SKEW Index 60-day z-score. Elevated values (> +1.5) indicate institutional tail-risk hedging and out-of-the-money put demand.=2.49 (+0.080) | vix_tsⓘVolatility term structure ratio (VIX / VIX3M). Values < 1.0 confirm normal contango (calm regime); >= 1.0 indicates backwardation (near-term panic).=0.89 (+0.044) | sector_rsⓘ20-day relative strength of SMH vs SPY: Delta%20d(SMH) - Delta%20d(SPY). Positive values confirm semiconductor sector leadership.=-0.02 (-0.022) | slope_accelⓘ5-day rate of change in normalized slope (t_norm - t_norm_prev5) capturing trend acceleration.=-0.54 (+0.014) | vxn_squeeze_velⓘ5-day rate of change in Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN). Rapid drops detect post-panic volatility compression and short squeezes.=0.34 (+0.013)
#3 SNPS Last Close: $468.11 PRE-SIZED TICKET #3 (Tier HIGH)
Order (Using Settled Cash: $10,000)
BUY $4,892.91
~10.452 shares @ $468.11 (Max Risk: -$576)
Order (With ETF Rotation: $10,000)
BUY $4,892.91
~10.452 shares @ $468.11 (Max Risk: -$576)
Hard Stop-Loss
$412.99 (-11.8%)
Profit Target (TP1)
$569.17 (+21.6%)
ML Score & RSⓘComposite conviction score combining Platt-calibrated win probability P(TP1 before Stop) with 20-day beta-neutral residual momentum percentile rank across the active universe.
50.2% (RS 100th)
Order Execution: Market on Open (MOO) or Limit ≤ $486.48
Gap-Up Protection: Max chasing ceiling is $486.48 (+3.9% max). If stock opens above $486.48 at 09:30 ET, skip/cancel order.
Entry Condition: PASSES ALL STOCK GATES (Waiting only on SMH regime_on)  |  Max Hold: 25 trading days  |  Earnings: 39d
Top Model Drivers (SHAP): skew_idxⓘCBOE SKEW Index 60-day z-score. Elevated values (> +1.5) indicate institutional tail-risk hedging and out-of-the-money put demand.=2.49 (+0.063) | vix_tsⓘVolatility term structure ratio (VIX / VIX3M). Values < 1.0 confirm normal contango (calm regime); >= 1.0 indicates backwardation (near-term panic).=0.89 (+0.053) | rs_rankⓘCross-sectional percentile rank [0.0, 1.0] of 20-day residual momentum across the active tradeable universe.=1.00 (+0.027) | sector_rsⓘ20-day relative strength of SMH vs SPY: Delta%20d(SMH) - Delta%20d(SPY). Positive values confirm semiconductor sector leadership.=-0.02 (-0.017) | vxn_squeeze_velⓘ5-day rate of change in Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN). Rapid drops detect post-panic volatility compression and short squeezes.=0.34 (+0.013)
#4 CDNS Last Close: $324.38 PRE-SIZED TICKET #4 (Tier HIGH)
Order (Using Settled Cash: $10,000)
BUY $4,857.91
~14.976 shares @ $324.38 (Max Risk: -$506)
Order (With ETF Rotation: $10,000)
BUY $4,857.91
~14.976 shares @ $324.38 (Max Risk: -$506)
Hard Stop-Loss
$290.56 (-10.4%)
Profit Target (TP1)
$386.39 (+19.1%)
ML Score & RSⓘComposite conviction score combining Platt-calibrated win probability P(TP1 before Stop) with 20-day beta-neutral residual momentum percentile rank across the active universe.
48.2% (RS 98th)
Order Execution: Market on Open (MOO) or Limit ≤ $335.65
Gap-Up Protection: Max chasing ceiling is $335.65 (+3.5% max). If stock opens above $335.65 at 09:30 ET, skip/cancel order.
Entry Condition: Waiting: ext_atr=-0.70 outside [-0.5,3.5], slope_accel=-0.52<=0  |  Max Hold: 25 trading days  |  Earnings: 8d
Top Model Drivers (SHAP): skew_idxⓘCBOE SKEW Index 60-day z-score. Elevated values (> +1.5) indicate institutional tail-risk hedging and out-of-the-money put demand.=2.49 (+0.066) | vix_tsⓘVolatility term structure ratio (VIX / VIX3M). Values < 1.0 confirm normal contango (calm regime); >= 1.0 indicates backwardation (near-term panic).=0.89 (+0.044) | sector_rsⓘ20-day relative strength of SMH vs SPY: Delta%20d(SMH) - Delta%20d(SPY). Positive values confirm semiconductor sector leadership.=-0.02 (-0.021) | rs_rankⓘCross-sectional percentile rank [0.0, 1.0] of 20-day residual momentum across the active tradeable universe.=0.98 (+0.018) | slope_accelⓘ5-day rate of change in normalized slope (t_norm - t_norm_prev5) capturing trend acceleration.=-0.52 (+0.016)
SemiSwing Unleveraged AI & Semiconductor Swing System • SMH $558.84 (EMA100 $566.14 / EMA200 $515.61) • 3M T-Bill Cash Yield: 4.10% APY
SemiSwing Public Model Desk • Report Created: 2026-10-19 15:18:25 EDT